NGX Q3 2026 Review: a record high, carried by a handful of giants

The All-Share Index gained 9.5% between July and September and closed the quarter at 251,211.67. Five stocks did most of the work, and more shares fell than rose.

Three months, three moods

July (+6.9%) did most of the quarter's work. The index opened the quarter with two losing sessions and touched its low of 224,321.97 on 2 July, then rallied hard: the 2.3% gain on 8 July was the best day of the quarter, and by 28 July the ASI had climbed above 247,000.

August (−0.4%) was a slow give-back. After a peak of 248,530 on 10 August, the index drifted lower for most of the month and bottomed at 238,683 on 26 August, a 4% pullback, before a late recovery left it just below where July ended.

September (+2.9%) belonged to the FTSE Russell story. Buying built through the month ahead of the Frontier 50 index changes that took effect on 21 September, the ASI gained 1.4% on 18 September alone, and it set a record close of 252,566.84 on 28 September before easing to 251,211.67 at quarter end.

Who carried the index

Nigeria's market cap rose by ₦15.89 trillion in the quarter. By our estimate, five companies account for most of that: Airtel Africa (about ₦5.7tn added, shares +31.4%), First HoldCo (about ₦4.6tn, +185.3%), Seplat Energy (about ₦2.8tn, +40.8%), MTN Nigeria (about ₦2.5tn, +16.3%) and Dangote Cement (about ₦1.8tn, +10.8%).

First HoldCo was the story of the quarter. The shares went from ₦56.05 to ₦159.90, lifted by earnings, capital-raising plans and its selection for the FTSE Frontier 50 alongside Zenith Bank, GTCO, MTN Nigeria, Dangote Cement and Aradel Holdings. Seplat climbed to an all-time high of ₦16,000 in late September. We covered which names foreign index money was likely to buy first in The Ten Stocks Foreign Money Will Buy First.

The index rose 9.5%, but 70 of 145 priced stocks fell in the quarter and only 48 rose.

That gap matters for anyone comparing their portfolio with the headline. A typical NGX stock did worse than the ASI in Q3, because the index is weighted by market value and the biggest names were the ones going up.

Banks and oil led; consumer goods lagged

Financial services stocks rose about 27% as a group, helped by First HoldCo, Access Holdings (+38.2%), Zenith Bank (+21.8%) and Wema Bank (+21.2%). Oil and gas gained about 23% on Seplat, Eterna (+58.6%) and Aradel (+7.9%). Telecoms, through Airtel Africa and MTN Nigeria, added about 24%.

The drag came from consumer goods, down about 13%, where BUA Foods fell 19.0% and removed roughly ₦3.2 trillion of market value, the largest single loss in the market. BUA Cement (−12.7%), ETI (−28.6%) and Transcorp Power (−27.5%) were the other large decliners by value.

Trading activity

Investors traded 57.1 billion shares worth ₦2.48 trillion across 3.23 million deals in Q3, an average of ₦37.5 billion a session. On the last day of the quarter, turnover was ₦32.3 billion, slightly below that average.

For dollar investors

The naira firmed from about ₦1,380 to about ₦1,328 per dollar over the quarter, so the ASI's 9.5% became roughly 13.8% in dollar terms. Since 31 December, the index is up 61.4% in naira and about 76% in dollars, the strongest year-to-date dollar return among the major African markets we track on Mansa Markets.

What to watch in Q4

Three things: whether foreign buying continues now that the FTSE Russell changes are in force; nine-month earnings from the banks and the large industrials in October, which will test valuations after a 61% run this year; and the naira, whose strength has added several points to returns for anyone measuring in dollars. With breadth this narrow, a pause in the five largest movers would show up quickly in the index.